Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 10.588996 12.409631 14.398504 16.725805 19.367425 22.265500 25.678143
2025-01-12 7.563615 9.986683 12.902004 16.636554 21.258901 26.755648 33.746197
2025-01-19 5.711149 8.368119 11.840942 16.638412 23.008420 31.081773 41.978061
2025-01-26 4.877566 7.797745 11.884438 17.883780 26.302723 37.510702 53.335074
2025-02-02 4.143573 7.174125 11.684884 18.672537 28.960812 43.244723 64.191800
2025-02-09 3.571771 6.655154 11.509001 19.397946 31.513777 48.957911 75.383383
2025-02-16 2.970659 5.955533 10.920899 19.375331 32.893097 53.033927 84.481490
2025-02-23 2.406039 5.194932 10.097618 18.836368 33.365237 55.734789 91.678619
2025-03-02 1.925441 4.480808 9.227345 18.076667 33.356194 57.631666 97.712245
2025-03-09 1.628924 4.058176 8.799317 17.997132 34.411380 61.206418 106.488165
2025-03-16 1.358949 3.629345 8.286961 17.686830 35.014048 64.054615 114.244059
2025-03-23 1.247975 3.525058 8.385743 18.505188 37.635339 70.356294 127.886640
2025-03-30 1.094040 3.295502 8.211608 18.809697 39.413982 75.454963 140.026328
2025-04-06 0.938219 3.025589 7.912557 18.834916 40.687461 79.791191 151.191636
2025-04-13 0.807420 2.786864 7.641837 18.879815 41.992329 84.257153 162.828652
2025-04-20 0.778572 2.821218 7.999003 20.282177 46.032568 93.830474 183.790002
2025-04-27 0.720507 2.757285 8.112782 21.165836 49.108825 101.826135 202.375841
2025-05-04 0.664022 2.683852 8.191086 21.975042 52.090117 109.805737 221.311798
2025-05-11 0.575420 2.484012 7.917895 21.950568 53.348096 114.630644 234.798506
2025-05-18 0.476743 2.218780 7.426210 21.351029 53.336838 117.028999 243.957410
2025-05-25 0.385735 1.947429 6.864797 20.505236 52.707384 118.169996 250.812168
2025-06-01 0.332498 1.799076 6.622819 20.416675 53.721312 122.576177 263.984244
2025-06-08 0.280012 1.633385 6.297502 20.071004 54.119873 125.760823 274.960481